RTO mandates and the AI epiphany
Summary
RTO mandates are missing the AI mark. AI isn’t just changing the way we do business, it’s also changing how teams collaborate. RTO mandates ignore this shift and leave teams and companies stuck in a generational warp.
Last week, I wrote about how AI will likely make teams smaller and async-first a preferred work pattern. Much of that prediction isn’t crystal ball gazing anymore. While the $1B solopreneur is yet to emerge, billion-dollar valuations with 50 employees or fewer already exist.
But even as 2025, RTO mandates keep rolling in - citing familiar tropes - culture, collaboration, coaching, camaraderie and community. You know, the five Cs. Even when companies are remote-first in the West, bosses in feudal cultures, such as India, announce RTO diktats in offshore branches of the same company, knowing that employees in such places are less likely to push back. The blatant feudalism aside, such mandates feel disconnected from how AI-led knowledge work is evolving.
In The Innovator’s Dilemma, Clay Christensen differentiated between the behaviour of established companies focusing on sustained innovations and smaller, new entrants introducing disruptive innovations. The larger the company, the greater the status quo bias. The smaller, the newer the company, the less it cares about the past.
Indeed, these biases reflect themselves in work arrangements. The smaller the company, the more remote it is. The larger the company, the stronger the bias for in-office arrangements.
On the other hand, McKinsey’s state of AI report points to a fascinating proliferation of AI in all kinds of business functions.
I find these trends fascinating. They stimulate questions that only time will answer.
Let’s assume that AI-first success does benefit from async-first collaboration. In such a case, are companies with a location and time-independent mindset more likely to succeed than those that follow a traditional work model?
8 in 10 companies admit to losing talent because of their RTO policies. Will this lead to an exodus to smaller, more innovative firms that embrace an AI-first, async-first way of working?
20% of job postings are remote, and they attract 60% of applications. With that level of competition, is it likely that smaller, nimbler operators end up with crazy-high densities of top talent? Indeed, difficulty in hiring AI-related roles remains a problem in 2025.
I’m also keen to observe how the upstarts differ from the incumbents. Will tradition win or modern work? Will the bosses have their way or the workers? Will AI empower the masses or put more power in the hands of the executives? Will the quality of our work and lives improve? With the pace of AI-led change, I reckon we’ll have our answers soon. Keep watching this space.